A degree isn't the magic word to a job anymore

Why go to college?

THE careers topic is of continuing interest for the public-at-large, but it's red hot on the campus because career expectations are a crucial part of the experience of higher education. For the entire life of the current generation of young adults, the magic word has been college. College is the key to success. College will get you a good job. College will guarantee you a share of the good life. For the past 25 years the country has been on an education binge and the percentage of the nation's work force with one or more years of college has doubled from 16 per cent to 32 per cent. At the same time, the percentage of the work force which has not completed high school fell from 56 to 29 per cent.

Never before in history have so many people spent so much time in school. From 1952 until about 1968, a college degree was rewarded in the market place. The nation was undergoing a rapid technological expansion and jobs were created faster than technicians could be trained. A corollary was the increase in service occupations requiring higher levels of interpersonal and managerial skills; skills which are assumed to be dependent to a considerable extent on education. Because of the stimulated demand for education, the nation's colleges expanded their capacities and the number of people in the education work force increased dramatically.

Then around 1968, the supply of people who were "educated" exceeded the demand of employers for the first time in the memory of people under 40. News stories began to appear about the surplus of college-trained people; books and articles were published which questioned the economic value of a college education. On the college and university campuses the halcyon days were over. Enrollments leveled off generally, and, at many schools, dropped precipitously. Faculty mobility, which had been taken for granted for so long, became a memory. The question of over-tenured faculties, limiting the entry of bright young teachers, became a widespread concern.

High expectations
Concurrently, employers began to increase the educational qualifications for lower-level jobs only to be met with discrimination suits, which challenged the relevance and legitimacy of any education requirements for many positions. In November of 1976, the acerbic columnist, Nicholas von Hoffman, penned an article entitled "Unhappiness is a College Degree," in which he decried the false sense of security arising from the possession of a college degree and the resultant psychological trauma when expectations failed to materialize. "We have," said Mr. von Hoffman, "badly misdirected people in education and career choice while we have fewer and fewer people willing to do the 'dirty work.'" Von Hoffman questioned the likelihood that everyone could have "a satisfying job" or "a career with a future," when young people were encouraged to plan for professional or managerial positions in proportions far in excess of their availability.

Social commentator, Sidney J. Harris, expressed a similar concern. In a column entitled "Worthless Titles and Diplomas," Harris quoted a line from W. S. Gilbert's "The Gondoliers." "When everybody's somebody, nobody's anybody." Harris went on to describe Gilbert's mythical kingdom of Barataria, where everyone is given a royal title at birth, thereby making such titles valueless. He compared this situation with our devalued educational credentials which have become surplus in the marketplace. Mr. Harris said that as the number of college graduates multiplies, it becomes less likely that any correlation exists between a degree and exceptional skill and talent. He feels some other way must be found to identify the best and brightest, especially if they are the ones to whom the professional and managerial jobs should go.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, we will soon be producing 180,000 college graduates annually over and above the demand. The National Center for Education Statistics of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare predicts a 50 per cent increase in the number of degrees that will be awarded between 1974 and 1985 as compared to the previous 11 years. The College Placement Council projects an oversupply of college graduates estimated at about 900,000 between 1976 and 1985.

In spite of the gloomy overall picture, there is some hope for individuals in certain fields. According to the projections for employment by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics*, the number of workers employed will increase from more than 85 million to more than 102

24 / July 1977 / Illinois Issues

million by 1985, assuming continued economic recovery and a decrease in unemployment to 4 per cent by that time. Of these 17 million new jobs, a substantial increase has been projected in a number of areas where it's generally assumed a college degree is a prerequisite for employment.

Illinois prospects
It is anticipated that employment growth in the state of Illinois to 1985 will average 12 per cent across all occupations. In some categories, however, where college training is typically required, the increase may be two times greater. For example, 27 per cent more nurses will be needed, 28 per cent more computer programmers and 34 per cent more bank and finance managers. Conversely, there will be a decrease in employment in some of the craft areas and semi-skilled trades where growth has been substantial in the past. By 1985, Illinois will need only 7 per cent more truck drivers, 3 per cent more waiters and waitresses and 7 per cent more cooks or chefs. Professional occupations are in for substantial growth: 34 percent more physicians, 34 per cent more lawyers and 27 per cent more dentists will be needed.

Illinois is projected to increase the number of accountants employed by 7,876, compared with a national increase of 185,000. Employment of bank and finance managers will grow in Illinois by 8,057, while national growth will be 225,000. Other projected needs include: 2,923 more computer programmers in Illinois, 95,000 nationally; 16,366 registered nurses in Illinois, 400,000 nationally; 1,022 more Illinois state policemen, 200,000 more across the country (many police departments now require college graduation for their officer recruits).

Many increases will be in the fields that have not previously required college degrees but probably will as the supply of graduates increases and employers begin to take advantage of this situation. Here we might include Illinois' need for 6,112 new bank tellers out of a national increase of 112,000; 11,743 more Illinois bookkeepers compared to 185,000 more across the nation. Illinois anticipates 30,612 more retailing employees; the national increase will be 420,000. Blue-collar supervisors will add 9,527 to their ranks in Illinois while national employment of foremen will increase by 313,000. Those who make it to professional schools will find Illinois adding 7,155 more physicians/osteopaths, while the national increase will be 153,000. Illinois will employ 1,941 more dentists, while U.S. employment of dentists will go up 38,000. Lawyers will increase their ranks in Illinois by 7,694 against a national increase of 145,000.

However, Illinois' 4,215 new carpenters, 6,329 new electricians and 3,169 additional plumbers will probably continue to come from union apprenticeship training programs, although the state's community colleges are offering more vocational courses. Other types of employment in the state, like waiters and waitresses (1,925), cooks and chefs (3,942), truck drivers (6,114), and auto mechanics (5,259), will not be the ones college graduates will be satisfied with, but may find themselves taking in order to work.

This is another dimension to the problem. According to the career guidance counselor at a prestigious women's college, the graduates of her school and those like it "would not psychologically nor physically tolerate 98 per cent of the available jobs." Obviously, this does not leave them many to choose from. Selective job seekers, however, will find that if they haven't played their educational cards right, a job well below their expectations will be all they can get.

As a professional educator whose job description includes career counseling, I hope I can be excused if I make a plea here for the importance of career planning as a part of curricular offering and not just as an afterthought. Only recently have colleges begun to offer career-planning courses for credit. This is an area where faculty advising should play a major role. Faculty exert a strong influence on the career decisions of their students, second only to their parents, according to some research. The counseling function puts some faculty in a genuine predicament. Should they, for instance, encourage the bright, young person who is interested in history to continue to major in an already crowded field? The answer may be a qualified "yes" if career planning can be incorporated into the student's program of study. Such planning opens the student's options to include areas like writing and research that offer associated career possibilities. Whatever the case, students should be made aware of the consequences of being overtrained in a field offering reduced job opportunities.

We shouldn't pick on history either. Literature, languages, philosophy, even the somewhat more vocationally related field of psychology, are all in the same career boat. Overcrowded.

Education strategy
There is one strategy to suggest for both institutions and clients in view of the current problem. For the past four years, I've been working with a somewhat atypical clientel at Sangamon State University, one of Illinois' two upper-division universities — which tends to attract a large proportion of older students. These students are frequently well established in their careers and want to involve themselves in the study of things for their own sake. For them, a degree in creative arts may do little to enhance their marketability, but it does wonders for their self-image and their enjoyment of life. I'm not proposing young students shouldn't also pursue learning for its own sake and for the sheer love and enjoyment of the pursuit. They should, but we owe it to them to be candid and to advise them that such knowledge needs also to be accompanied by marketable skills if they wish to compete in the job market.

We might do well to recognize the potential of that old but viable concept of the lifelong learner. Such a person would emphasize skill development in the early stages of education and move gradually into further study of the liberal arts as the comprehension and appreciation of their value increases. In any event, we need to recognize the importance of career development and planning if all of us, young and not so young, are going to make the most of living in a rapidly changing economic environment. 

July 1977 / Illinois Issues / 25

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