ILLINOIS ISSUES ELECTION SURVEY
Third party possibilities
RELATIVELY few candidates for the Illinois House believe Republicans will gain the six seats they need in November to win control of the House. Only 30 per cent of House candidates surveyed predict Republican control, while 46 per cent predict Republicans will fail to elect a majority. As pointed out last month, the existence of new party candidates in several upstate districts could imperil Republican hopes for House control. There is only one new party candidate downstate, incumbent Rep. Joe E. Lucco(D., Edwardsville). Lucco was beaten by just 47 1/2 votes in the Democratic primary, but he filed as a candidate under the "Citizens for Lucco" party to try to retain his seat for a third term. He is running in the strongly Democratic 56th District, where he appears to have little chance of victory since he lacks the backing of the regular Democratic party organization. One of the two organization candidates would likely be hurt if he succeeds, since the Republican incumbent. Rep. Everett G. Steele(R., Glen Carbon), appears safe. Cumulative voting allows Republican voters to give Steele a bullet — all three votes allotted each voter in House elections. In the past Lucco has been elected as a Democrat and he would probably vote with Democrats for the purpose of organizing the House. However in order to get on the ballot, he has had to form a new party, "Citizens for Lucco," and name a slate to run with him in the 56th District. On his slate are two other House candidates and a Senate candidate, all without previous political experience. He turned in petitions with 5,674 signatures, 2,000 more than required by law to get his name on the ballot.
Another way a splinter candidate may get on the ballot is by filing as an independent before the primary. This assures a place on the general election ballot without entering the primary. There is only one such independent candidate downstate, James E. "Jim" McCauley from Joliet in the 39th District. McCauley is a long shot since three incumbent regular party candidates — two Republicans and a Democrat — are likely winners in the 39th. Thus, although Democrats may lose six seats to Republicans downstate, they may gain from enough upstate splinter candidate victors to retain a working control of the House. Republicans may pick up as many as six seats downstate — in the 45th, 50th, 51st, 54th, 55th and 59th districts — without losing any seat they presently hold there. Splinter party candidates are not a threat to either party downstate. But the existence of such candidates raises the specter of decentralization of the Democratic party, since many disgruntled former party faithful now are ready to go outside the existing structure to defeat Republicans, and party leaders don't appear willing or able to prevent this. Republicans, of course, could retaliate in the next election. If enough third or new party candidates were elected in a future election, they could wield considerable clout in the legislature by voting as a bloc. They might tip the delicate balance of party power if they found one single issue or strong leadership to unify them. Presumably most would share a maverick dissatisfaction with regular party structure and could agree on one or two major issues. Cumulative voting and the present elections provisions for third parties would give supporters of a single major issue an opportunity to win some legislative seats.
October 1978/Illinois Issues/7
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