Washington By MARK GRUENBERG

Anderson for President?

SOMETIME in the next few weeks, after three months' worth of "exploring" and speechmaking around the country, Rep. John B. Anderson, (R., Rockford) will announce whether he is going to embark on what some political analysts view as a quixotic quest for the presidency. It won't bean easy decision, and Anderson knows it.

"He is not well-known and that is not a position of strength," said his top aide and political strategist Mike Masterston. "But he is in a position of potential," he added.

Masterston may be right if you take an historically accurate view of the GOP. But today's conservative group is unlike the party of Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt which Anderson harkens back to. (Some analysts argue that the GOP hasn't been like the party of Lincoln and Roosevelt since Roosevelt.) That change is Anderson's(and Masterston's) main problem if the 16th District congressman decides to plunge into a 1980 presidential drive.

Masterston says a campaign of "fiscal responsibility tempered with social justice" can overcome conservative hostility. "Perception is everything. People want to have fiscal accountibility, and Anderson scores well on fiscal performance charts. I don't think he Would get himself painted into a corner on fiscal issues as Percy has."

On social issues, Anderson is "a moderate-progressive," according to Masterston. "Free-thinking Americans will respect that, and in the suburbs they're not so riled up by social issues." Masterston and Anderson may believe this is so, but Charles Percy's problems in November included a 47 per cent Sun-Times straw poll vote for Alex Seith in heavily GOP DuPage County. The reasons: Percy's support of the Panama Canal treaty and civil rights. If perception is everything, then Anderson will have similar problems with GOP grass-roots voters in DuPage and other suburban counties.

Anderson also pins his hopes on "a blurring of political distinctions." Masterston pointed to recent studies showing business support for Democrats and blue-collar trends towards the Republicans. Yet these factors also pose problems for Anderson. In the past national GOP candidates have won blue-collar votes by taking positions on social issues which were opposite to Anderson's views. Anderson has won blue-collar votes in Rockford, but Don Lyon's primary challenge showed Anderson losing GOP votes with his moderate views.

Anderson is encouraged by the efforts of his own exploratory fundraising campaign committee. It enabled him to keep a hectic nationwide speechmaking schedule — taking soundings of GOP sentiment on the way — including stops in the key states of New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio. He has already made two almost obligatory trips to New Hampshire. Also included are several trips to Iowa, whose moderate GOP and early caucuses may give him a vital advantage.

Anderson also has some hidden advantages, Masterston said. Jimmy Carter is one of them. "We are past the naivete where it was thought that good feelings and a strong heart equal a good presidency," he claims. Referring to Carter, he added, "We can't go through another period of helping a guy along in learning the office for two or three years after the election. It's good to have congressional or national experience." Anderson is recognized by both parties as an effective and respected idealist, who can produce legislative victories.

Anderson is also not running out of personal ambition, according to Masterston. If he was, he would not even consider the prospect, since even Masterston admits the GOP deck is initially stacked against him.

"He has this fear that the party may be captured by the conservatives for all time," he mused. "Before that happens, he would like to see a full drawn out contest for the thoughts and votes of the rank and file." He also believes that Republican philosophy has been distorted into one "which dooms us to permanent minority status."

Anderson has one final advantage:
despite his lack of national name recognition, he may be the only creditable moderate-progressive in a New Hampshire primary field packed with conservatives. As of now, the field may include himself plus conservatives Reagan, Dole, Crane, Connallyand former President Ford. Another potential candidate, George Bush, is an unknown, while the only other active moderate-progressive, Connecticut Sen. Lowell Weicker, is dismissed as a political neophyte. With about 34-40 per cent of the New Hampshire GOP being mode rates, Anderson has a fighting chance, should he enter the race.

Finally, Anderson has one selling point he can always mention: the Democratic National Committee official who earlier said that Carter's operatives weren't afraid of having Reagan, Crane et al as opponents. But that official said Carter's crowd did fear Anderson's candidacy, because Anderson (like Carter an evangelical Christian) would take away Carter's constituency. 

Gruenberg's article on Congressional redistricting will appear next month!

January 1979 / Illinois Issues/35