H. Douglas Sessoms was the recipient of the Charles K. Brightbill Alumni Award from the University of Illinois in April, 1979. The following article was prepared by Dr. Sessoms based on the keynote address he presented on that occasion.

What will be the future of parks and recreation in the coming decade? In part, that can be answered by looking at some of the major forces which are creating all of our futures. Parks and recreation like other social institutions are being impacted by present decisions and actions. Dominant forces of changes such as our population patterns, energy resource usage, and social/ political attitudes are extracting their price. Let's look at each of these and project some of their consequences.

Since 1957 the birth rate in this country has been declining. We are becoming an "older" population, with a median age in 1979 of 29 years of age. By 1985 the "average" citizen will be 34 years old. That means half the population will be over 34 years; ours will be an adult population. Park and recreation services in communities have traditionally focused on the younger segments of the population but with those segments declining in numbers, attention must be directed toward adults if we are to continue receiving the public support.

A second population shift is a move from the northern tier of states to the sun belt. This pattern will continue in the 1980's as energy resources and fuel costs spiral upward. Likewise, we can expect to see large numbers of people move from the suburbs, back to the city. The beautiful suburban communities of the 1950's may become the ghettos of the 1990's. Population patterns must be carefully reviewed and understood if we are to effect a vital delivery system.

Declining energy resources will significantly effect recreation and leisure behaviors in the coming decade. The cost of fuel, the problems of heating and cooling major public buildings, the frustration of obtaining liquid energy: all of these will encourage and support "staying at home." We will become a less mobile society, a people who will turn to their immediate neighborhoods and living environments for satisfactions and support. Zoning regulations will be modified; neighborhoods will once again become a heterogeneous mix of services and living patterns characterized by "multiple use" zoning, a diversity of proximate small business and leisure resources, and a resurgence of avocational interests carried out in the home environment.

Recreation and park systems will be affected by our declining ability to get to centrally located recreation spaces. Attention will shift from the construction and maintenance of major recreation facilities to the development and expediting of programs. We will rely heavily upon the technologies of electronics to "get us together." Much of our interaction will be by telephone and television; the computer will become a much more used tool in programming as well as in the administering of leisure services. Informational services such as leisure education, leisure counseling and leisure consulting will become important elements of the recreation program system.

A third major change occurring is a change in the social and political attitudes of our population. College students, today, are not as politically and socially concerned as were their counterparts a decade ago. For that matter, neither are the adult segments of the population. Inflation, disillusion with the government's ability to handle social issues, and the high cost of energy have frustrated many moderates; the move toward the political and social "right" is a reality.

Several changes may result from these shifts in attitudes. There may be a decline of financial support for programs designed primarily for special populations and minority interests. There will be a growing demand for fiscal accountibility, for the provision of more or equal amounts of services with less tax support. The role of federal and state government will be reduced as more "Proposition 13" actions are demanded by the taxpayers. Local groups will demand their rights to determine their own types, levels and loads of service. If government does not respond to their demands, they will create these services privately and will vote to reduce taxes accordingly.

The 1980's will be quite different from the preceding two decades. Recreation and park professionals must begin now to adapt to a

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nation primarily populated by adults who are politically and socially conservative. The physical environment will be more restrictive and supportive of these social attitudes. There will be greater reliance on electronics for both program and administrative decisions and actions. Program services will be decentralized; the content and delivery of services will become more critical than the acquisition and development of recreation spaces. In many instances, our clients may be private recreation associations established by adults in their own communities in response to their leisure interests. Rather than the park and recreation professional directing these programs, his role may be to assist these private groups with technical assistance and consulting services. For others, our approach may be to continue as we have in the past.

A multiple faceted delivery system is indicated if we are to serve the many publics who financially support us.

The future will be exciting. It will require us to modify, adapt, and create new organizational structures and programs. If we rely primarily on the past and our present modes of operation, we may not like the future. If we begin now to put in motion those approaches compatible with the consequences, our population shifts, declining energy sources, and growing political conservative attitudes, then we will like the future. It will be the one we have created and we will be very much a part of it. Charles Brightbill and others of his stature would have loved such a challenge. May we be equal to it setting high expectations of ourselves; to serve our fellow man by providing meaningful opportunities for leisure expression.

Dr. H. Douglas Sessoms is Chairman and Professor of Recreation Administration at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He received his Master of Science in Recreation Administration degree from the University of Illinois in 1954 and completed his Ph.D. in Recreation Education at New York University in 1957. He is a past president of the Society of Park and Recreation Educators, recipient of its master fellow award, and is currently a member of the Board of Trustees of the National Park and Recreation Association. He has authored some 70 articles and manuscripts including three texts. He serves as a consulting Editor for the Recreation Series for Allyn & Bacon Publishing Co.

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