Illinois Issues Election Almanac

By PORTER McNEIL

Traditional party strength

QUESTION: Which major party is stronger in Illinois, and how can you tell?

THE NUMBER of Illinoisans who identify with either of the two major political parties fluctuates from year to year, but on balance, there has been rough parity over the years between those who say they are Democrats or Republicans.

One of the most accurate barometers for measuring Illinois' party identification, according to some political pundits, is the statewide voting in the races for seats on the University of Illinois Board of Trustees. The assumption is that the majority of voters, not knowing who the trustee candidates are, vote for those representing the political party with which they identify most strongly.

Voting behavior is an admittedly complex phenomenon, involving factors beyond a voter's simple party identification. For instance, in 1974 with the help of Watergate, Democrats made strong gains in all types of political elections, including the U of I Board of Trustees race (see table below). Similarly, in 1982 a high Chicago Democratic voter turnout and pockets of depression around the state helped to increase statewide support for the Democratic candidates, including the trustees candidates.

But most observers would agree that the vote for the U of I Board of Trustees is a fair indicator of the voting population's party identification at a given time. To the degree that that theory is true, the Democrats have enjoyed a slight edge overall in party identification — at least since 1968. The numbers fluctuate from election to election, but the overall vote percentage breakdown from 1968 to 1984 is Democrats 52 percent. Republicans 48 percent.

Vote percentages, by party, for University of Illinois Board of Trustees, 1968-1984

(three Democratic and three Republican candidates were on each ballot)

ANSWER: Judging from the votes for the U of I Board of Trustees, the Democrats have been slightly the stronger party in the last nine elections.

August & September 1986/Illinois Issues/27