Illinois' superseded Tuesday

Whoever decided to call it Super Tuesday had the right idea. This year the March 15 Illinois primary election was superseded by this preemptive event. Intending to nominate a mainstream candidate, Southern Democratic party leaders front-loaded the selection process with a March 8 marathon of primaries and caucuses. This had unusual effects on Illinois voting patterns.

For a presidential candidate, there was no point in looking beyond Super Tuesday to Illinois, no point in committing campaign time or funds to Illinois until Super Tuesday's 20-state test was over. So Super Tuesday survivors waged one-week campaigns in Illinois. And the news media in Illinois had concentrated on the successes of the two favorite sons, U.S. Sen. Paul Simon and Jesse Jackson, in the horse race among Democrats.

In elections with large fields of candidates, front-runners frequently emerge due to the mistakes of others, rather than winning because they've gained support from the majority. Super Tuesday outcomes were determined by losers not winners. After winning liberal Iowa, U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri lost 19 Super Tuesday states due to voters' perception that he flip-flopped on issues to accommodate the South. Conversely, U.S. Sen. Albert Gore of Tennessee passed up early states, positioning himself as The Southern Candidate, a label which didn't help later in Illinois, Wisconsin and New York.

Strangely, the candidates made an issue of ideology although the voting records of Gephardt, Gore and Simon were rated more liberal than 85 percent of their colleagues on social issues, 78 percent on economic issues and 71 percent on foreign policy.

The media proclaimed a trio of Super Tuesday front-runners: Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis, Gore and Jackson.

Jackson's turn as front-runner depended on demographic composition plus having three chief opponents on Super Tuesday. According to CBS exit polls, Jackson won five Super Tuesday states where 34 percent to 44 percent of Democratic primary voters were black. In most states, his percentage of the white vote was only 4 percent to 9 percent. In Illinois he would get 7 percent. Jackson's front-runner status on Super Tuesday, given the racial composition of later states.

Jackson's white voter percentage did improve after Illinois. He received 23 percent on April 5 in Wisconsin. In our WTMJ-TV (NBC, Milwaukee)

June 1988 | Illinois Issues | 40

exit poll for the Milwaukee mayoral election held on the day of the New Hampshire primary, 10 percent of whites said they would vote for Jackson. In our last April 5 Wisconsin primary exit poll in Milwaukee, his white vote jumped to 25 percent, yet he lost the state by 20 points.

The force driving Jackson's electoral success was black pride motivating large numbers of blacks to vote; this had a profound effect in some states. A zenith was reached in Michigan's low-turnout, open caucuses. But measured against the usual standard of a broad base of voters, Jackson rarely reached significant numbers outside his natural base, the black community.

For Simon, his otherwise unsuccessful campaign was revived for the Illinois primary. He was publicly running not to be nominated but to be a player in a dead-locked convention. Dukakis responded in a TV commercial, which was the climax of his week long campaign in Illinois, denouncing brokered conventions. This debate over process was surely lost to most voters.

Two things in the Illinois primary suggest a Republican cross-over vote to stop Jackson. Usually strong GOP areas like Dupage, Kane and Lake counties lost Republican voters and gained Democratic ones in the 1988 primary. And, according to the CBS exil poll, of the voters still undecided two days before the primary, 43 percent decided to vote for Simon. After 20 years in public life, Simon won much of his support only after the election began to look close between him and Jackson.

What happened to voter turnout in Illinois? For Democrats, voter turnout trends are mixed. Outside Chicago, turnout came within 1.5 points of three of the last four presidential primaries. In Chicago, the only Democratic gain since 1980 was in the black wards, up 108,392. For the first time, black voter turnout exceeded white ethnic ward turnout — and by a significant number: 11.4 points.

In Chicago's 17 white ethnic wards, normally controlled by the Democrats, a significant number of voters stayed home — down 58,179 since 1980. These same wards, which in 1980 accounted for 23 percent of the state's Democratic vote, made up only 15.5 percent of the total 1988 vote. The Republican vote in these wards was up slightly, but when the vote in GOP newcomer Ed Vrdolyak's 10th Ward is eliminated, the Republican vote in the other 16 wards was down 6,150.

Paul Simon did get 55 percent of the vote in these white wards, equal to what he got in most other parts of the state. Yet his appeal may not be that strong in these wards, considering his earlier elections. In the 1984 four-man primary for U.S. Senate nomination, he won the state but placed third in these same white wards, and in the general election, he lost many of them to Republican Charles Percy.

Statewide, the Democratic primary gained 266,628 voters since 1980 while the Republican primary lost 272,555.

For Republicans, compared to 1980 —their last primary without an unchallenged incumbent — there was decline across the state. For suburban Cook County Republicans, it was the lowest turnout in two decades. Statewide, compared to the Reagan-Ford 1976 primary, the 1988 Bush-Dole contest was slightly more appealing. □

Nick Panagakis is president of Market Shares Corporation, a marketing and public opinion research firm headquartered in Mount Prospect.

June 1988 | Illinois Issues | 41