The Pulse Jan 1989

The Pulse

Illinois' close presidential election

By NICK PANAGAKIS

On November 8, George Bush won Illinois by 94,999 votes. This was the sixth consecutive Illinois win by a Republican presidential candidate during the last 20 years. Bush's two percentage point win represents a smaller winning vote margin than Ford's over Carter here in 1976.

Although he lost Illinois, Michael Dukakis met or exceeded percentage margins of past, near successful or narrowly successful statewide Democratic candidates in major state areas, such as suburban Cook County. But candidates like Adlai E. Stevenson III for governor in 1982 and Paul Simon for U.S. senator in 1984 also carried Cook County by 312,000 and 318,000 votes, respectively. Dukakis was 65,000 votes under these margins in Cook County.

Based on official returns available in time for this column, a major voting decline is evident in Chicago. The city accounted for 23.6 percent of statewide votes in November, down from 25 percent in past presidential election years. Chicago's final registration tally of 1,556,372 ended up 38,423 voters short of November 1984.

This means that a change in the distribution or mix of voters in the state attributed to Dukakis' narrow loss.

But voter registration decline in Chicago was not the only problem since much of the decline can be traced to 17 white ethnic wards with higher Republican voting records than other city wards. Turnout in the 19 black wards was a low 64.5 percent of registered voters in Novermber, about 10 points under 1984 and even below the 1982 off-year election. Dukakis won 95.5 percent of the black ward vote but due to lower turnout got 40,483 fewer votes than Mondale in 1984 in black wards. Low black turnout cut Dukakis' Cook County margin significantly.

In the March primary, Chicago was down 123,767 voters compared to its November 1984 level. Democrats added 85,344 new Chicago voters between the 1988 primary and general elections; these were mostly in black and lakefront wards to bring these safely Democratic areas up to 1984 levels.

Cook County Republicans were more ambitious. In March the county's suburbs (everything outside Chicago) were down 45,862 voters from 1984. By November they were 47,759 ahead for a gain of 93,621 since March. Republicans started

Voter registration and turnout, Cook County, by area, 1982, 1984, 1988
	November 1982			November 1984			November 1988
	registered voters	ballots cast	turnout	registered voters	ballots cast	turnout	registered voters	ballots cast	turnout
TOTAL COUNTY	2,709,528	1,815,142	67.0%	2,879,182	2,262,103	78.6%	2,888,518	2,095,985	72.6%
TOTAL CHICAGO*	1,549,084	1,061,423	68.5%	1,594,795	1,247,630	78.2%	1,556,372	1,114,080	71.6%
White ethnic wards	560,088	404,158	72.2%	585,288	482,910	82.5%	548,657	427,835	78.0%
Lakefront wards	182,269	121,923	66.9%	202,773	163,554	80.7%	202,695	155.084	76.5%
Black wards	612,830	399,645	65.2%	615,727	456,073	74.1%	614,442	396,352	64.5%
Hispanic wards	79,898	54,552	68.3%	73,679	53,193	72.2%	72,255	43,941	60.8%
Racially mixed wards	113,999	79,533	69.8%	117,328	90,659	77.3%	118,323	85,936	72.6%
TOTAL SUBURBAN	1,160,444	753,719	65.0%	1,284,387	1,014,473	79.0%	1,332,146	981,905	73.7%
Northwest townships	205,677	123,756	60.2%	245,612	194.960	79.4%	279,643	206,721	73.9%
Northeast townships	258,936	175,125	67.6%	280,656	228,699	81.5%	281,030	219,287	78.0%
West townships	332,893	220,518	66.2%	359,508	280,114	77.9%	357,585	258,831	72.4%
South townships	362,938	234,320	64.6%	398,611	310,700	77.9%	413,888	297,066	71.8%
*Chicago totals include absentee ballots

34 | January 1989 | Illinois Issues

Democratic vote in Cook County by areas for major candidates (president, U.S. senator, governor), 1980-1988 (minor party candidates excluded from base
	1980 Carter	1982 Stevenson	1984 Mondale	1984 Simon	1986 Dixon	1986 Stevenson*	1988 Dukakis
TOTAL COUNTY	52.8%	59.1%	51.3%	57.5%	74.0%	54.4%	56.3%
TOTAL CHICAGO	68.5%	73.7%	65.3%	69.7%	84.7%	67.6%	69.9%
White ethnic wards	53.1%	59.5%	42.9%	53.0%	76.8%	50.7%	49.2%
Lakefront wards	55.5%	64.2%	58.3%	63.6%	77.9%	58.0%	63.6%
Black wards	92.4%	90.0%	93.2%	90.6%	96.7%	92.3%	95.5%
Hispanic wards	78.1%	83.8%	67.1%	69.7%	87.9%	71.7%	77.4%
Racially mixed wards	68.8%	72.7%	61.8%	67.1%	83.9%	64.9%	66.0%
TOTAL SUBURBAN	34.5%	39.0%	34.6%	42.9%	60.5%	37.7%	41.1%
Northwest townships	25.7%	28.7%	23.8%	31.8%	51.6%	27.1%	31.1%
Northeast townships	34.6%	39.8%	39.1%	47.5%	63.0%	40.2%	46.2%
West townships	37.6%	42.5%	36.2%	44.0%	61.6%	41.1%	43.9%
South townships	37.0%	40.7%	36.7%	45.4%	62.5%	38.6%	42.0%
*Includes Solidarity Party candidate Stevenson's votes and Democratic "no candidate" votes.

their voter registration drive earlier than Democrats. Both targeted their efforts. Of the 93,621 Republican increase, 40,499 came from the northwest panhandle section of the county which routinely votes 70 percent-75 percent Republican.

A Democratic candidate getting 58 percent of the Cook County vote would normally mean a statewide win assuming a reasonably good performance in the 96 downstate counties. Dukakis got 56.3 of Cook County. His short-fall to poor black turnout and failure to win a majority of the white ethic wards.

In the 17 white ethnic wards, turnout was 4.5 points under 1984, in line with the decline seen elsewhere in the state. Dukakis got 49.2 percent of the white ethnic vote, but a majority of votes in these wards is another threshold needed for a Democrat to win statewide. The half million voters in these wards must contribute to a Democrat's winning margin, not take away from it.

Before the Democratic convention, our poll for the Chicago Tribune showed Dukakis getting 59 percent in Cook County with the potential for more support from undecided voters. At that time the Bush campaign publicly vowed to increase Dukakis' negative rating above that of Bush, a "lesser of evils" strategy. They concentrated on social issues and the target was Reagan Democrats, the kind of Democrats who live in the white ethnic wards of Chicago.

By October 22-23, our Tribune poll showed Dukakis down to 54 percent in Cook County, and his unfavorable rating among all city white voters had increased from 18 percent to 28 percent.

Social issues like the Pledge of Allegiance, ACLU membership and prison furloughs, were raised in the campaign, issues which will not be heard again for at least four more years. State Republican mailings said that John Wayne Gacy would be out on furlough if he were in a Massachusetts prison, and provoked objections from Gacy himself from his Illinois prison. Illinois Republicans ran the kind of campaign that even John Wayne Gacy found offensive.

Bush carried suburban Cook County by 168,890 votes, a margin nearer to Gov. James R. Thompson's in his 1982 close win than to Reagan's in 1984 or even 1980.

An important component in Bush's winning margin was the county's northwest townships, the site of the voter registration drive. In 1988, 11,761 more ballots were cast there than in 1984. The area gave 76,270 more votes to Bush than Dukakis and was the only county area with increased voting over 1984.□

Nick Panagakis is president of Market Shares Corporation, a marketing and public opinion research firm headquartered in Mount Prospect. Panagakis, a member of the National Council on Public Polls, has done pre-election and exit polls for news media in Illinois, Missouri and Wisconsin: WBBM-TV (1974-1985) and the Chicago Tribune since 1987; KMOV-TV in St. Louis (1980-1986) and the Kansas City Times & Star and KCTV since 1988; and WTMJ-TV in Milwaukee since 1986.

January 1989 | Illinois Issues | 35

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