Any individual who lived during the 1960s undoubtedly recalls Bob Dylan's raspy rendition of The Times They Are A' Changin'. Dylan sang of changes which would "soon shake your windows and rattle your walls. " While the specific changes of which Dylan sang about have long since faded from popular memory, the general message he bore retains its relevance. For once again America is "changin', " and changing dramatically.

We stand at the forefront of a revolution which is unprecedented in human history. This revolution will touch all Americans in one way or another. It will have a profound effect on the policies and programs which have formed the social and economic fabric of our nation. The revolution is the result of the fact that as a society, America is aging.

The facts supporting this claim are commonplace. Unless one has spent the past two decades in total isolation, according to the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), the over-age-65 population is the fastest growing segment of the American population. While there were only about three million Americans age 65 or over in 1900, this age group recently surpassed the 25 million mark and is projected to rise to close to 65 million by the year 2050. In 1950, about 9 percent of the American population was 65 or older. Presently, this figure stands at about 12 percent. It is projected that by the middle of the next century one out of every five Americans — over 20 percent of the population —will be 65 years old or older. But, statistics do not tell the whole story of the coming revolution. In addition to increasing in sheer numbers, the older citizens of tomorrow are likely to be healthier, wealthier, more highly educated and more diverse than the seniors of past generations.

What implications might the aging of America have on the leisure service profession? What will recreational programs designed to serve seniors look like in the year 2000 or 2050? Will future leisure service personnel be prepared to meet the unique challenges created by a graying society? Factors responsible for the rising tide

Three separate factors are responsible for the changing age structure within the United States. The first factor is the dramatic increase in life expectancy experienced during the past century.

In 1776, the life expectancy for an American was slightly over 35 years of age. In 1900, this figure had risen to 48 years. However, at the present time a child born in the U.S. can expect to live to almost 75 years on the average according to AARP. The result of this profound increase in life expectancy is a senior boom, a rising tide of older Americans swelling in ranks at a rate faster than any other age group, For the first time in history, nearly four out of every five citizens born in this country will, on the average, live to be at least 65 years of age.

A second factor responsible for the shift in age structure is the decline in births that have been occurring since the middle of the 1960s. While there are twice as many women of childbearing age today as there were one generation ago, they are having only half as many children. When combined with the noted increase in life expectancy, this "birth dearth" means that the proportion of our population who are older will continually expand in the foreseeable future.

A final actor which contributes to societal aging is the advance of "baby boomers" through the life cycle. As amazing as it seems, over one-third of all Americans were born between 1946 and 1964. There is no question that this huge block of age cohorts represents the single most powerful economic and political power base within American society. When the boomers advance into their 50s and 60s, they will emerge as society's most influential segment, capable of setting political agendas and dominating election results.

What might this tidal wave of seniors mean to the recreation profession? At the most basic level it is predictable that there will be increasing demand for leisure services and programs focused upon older participants and sufficient clout to assure that these demands are met. As demand grows, recreational resources committed to seniors will be forced to expand. It is likely that the interests of older adults will be increasingly promoted by expanding representation of seniors on recreation councils, commissions, advisory boards, and in professional organizations. Moreover, political candidates will increasingly attempt to gamer the support of their older constituency by supporting policies and programs

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designed with senior interests in mind.

The sheer enormity of the baby boom generation will unquestionably present a serious challenge to the leisure profession. However, decisions about future services should not be based solely upon size projections. Not only will there be more seniors in coming years, but there is growing evidence to suggest that tomorrow's older adults will be quite different than today's. An understanding of these possible differences and their implications is essential for planners.

Health-conscious, activity-oriented seniors

The traditional scenario of a person retiring from work, then steadily disengaging from social and recreational involvements, experiencing gradual but persistent declines in physical functioning and eventually dying in less than a decade after retirement, has been exposed as a gross and misleading oversimplification. The increase in life expectancy is a clear reflection of the fact that more individuals are modifying their life-styles to accommodate health-sustaining practices. This seems to be particularly true for participation in vigorous physical activities. Evidence of this trend is plentiful.

A 1985 survey conducted by the National Sporting Goods Association found that 73 million Americans swam with some regularity, 51 million cycled, 89 million jogged, 24 million did aerobics, and 26 million did calisthenics. According to a recent national poll, over 13 6 million Americans claimed to exercise on a regular basis. Expenditures for memberships in athletic clubs grew from $227 million in 1972, to over $8 billion in 1984. Sales of home exercise equipment increased by 1,200 percent between 1974 and 1986.

While the accuracy of these participation rates have been challenged by some they do, nonetheless, reflect a fitness consciousness which has affected American society as a whole. It is reasonable to assume that this orientation toward fitness will follow today's middle-aged individuals into later adulthood. Studies specifically aimed at the impact of retirement suggest a general pattern of stability in leisure pursuits after retirement. As summarized by one set of researchers, "involvement in leisure activity is seen as a lifelong preference developed in childhood...and maintained somewhat consistently throughout the life course...until declining health or other problems act as constraints."

Moreover, evidence suggests that fitness activities are becoming increasingly popular among today's seniors. Participation in the Senior Olympics, for instance, has grown from only about 700 competitors in 1971 to over 100,000 in 1989. In addition, consumer demand for information about fitness and exercise programs specifically designed for older adults has proliferated, leading to the introduction of a wide array of new publications and video tapes.

For leisure professionals, this situation will require a change in traditional attitudes about the needs and desires of older consumers. No longer can we assume that bingo, church services and van rides to view fall scenery represent the collective leisure interests of seniors. When we consider older adults in the future, we will have to increasingly think in terms of active, vibrant participants rather than mere recipients of services. This is not to imply that all seniors will seek physically demanding forms of recreation. Nor is it meant to suggest that illness and disability will not limit the functional abilities of a substantial percentage of this population. What is does mean, however, is that leisure services and experiences once considered to be appropriate only for younger adults, will increasingly be sought by a "new" generation of seniors.

"...there have been baby booms before, but there has never been a senior boom..."
Ken Dychtwald

From a programming perspective we may anticipate growing demands for recreational resources which are utilized by physically fit, health-conscious consumers who happen to be of retirement age. For managers of already crowded tennis courts, golf courses or swimming pools, this is not welcome news. We can expect growing participation of seniors in aerobics, weight-training, swimming, dancing, and other similar recreation programs and classes. Given the popularity of the Seniors' Golf Tour and Senior Baseball League, it is reasonable to expect public recreation departments to be asked to organize athletic leagues for seniors in team sports such as softball, basketball or volleyball. There will be a continuation of the current trend of growing involvement of older adults in various athletic competitions like road races for runners, bicycle races and bike-touring events, swimming tournaments, and even triathlons. Growing numbers of older adults will be attracted to health and sports spas, tennis and golf clubs, running, hiking, and sailing clubs, and similar organizations.

Finally, opportunities for senior participation in high adventure recreation programs like parachuting, mountain climbing and hang gliding will probably also be demanded.

The rising tide of healthy older adults will also require the re-examination of recreation equipment and facilities. For instance, resorts and cruise lines which cater to older consumers will be increasingly called upon to provide exercise equipment and fitness-oriented programs and services. Park departments can anticipate growing demands from seniors for fitness and nature trails, bike paths, and crosscountry ski trails. These demands may be particularly useful in convalescent hospitals or long-term care facilities.

In summary, it seems exceedingly clear that as our society ages, there will be a corresponding increase in the demand for programs and services which accommodate a fitness-oriented life-style. In order to avoid being caught unprepared, the recreation profession must anticipate the implications of this trend and begin to plan accordingly.

Rise in general financial well-being

The presence or absence of financial resources has significant impact on the individual's capacity to adjust to the demands of everyday life. Adequate resources allow for options in terms of housing, leisure, life-style, health care, and a variety of other choices. Older people without money have far fewer options.

Fortunately, available data suggests that the overall financial well-being of older adults has been improving during the past 40 years. The AARP has stated that the median net worth — the difference between assets and liabilities — of households headed by individuals 65 or older was $35,950 in 1987,which is considerably above the U.S. average of $24,600. Moreover, according to the U.S. Bureau of Census, while about 3.3 million elderly persons had incomes below the poverty level in 1985, the poverty rate for persons 65 and older was 12.4 percent as compared to a 14.7 percent rate for persons under age 65.

The above figures, however, must be reviewed with some caution. The aged are a very heterogeneous population and

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consequently, the financial situation among them varies greatly. While the poverty rate for the elderly is 12.4 percent, in 1986 the U.S. Bureau of Census classified another 2.4 million seniors (or 9 percent of the elderly) as "near-poor." Significant differences exist in terms of income among various groups of older adults.

According to a 1989 study completed by Ken Dychtwald, author of Age Wave, Americans over age 50 spend more money on travel and recreation than any other age group. While they represent only 25 percent of the total U.S. population, this group purchases 80 percent of all luxury travel, 37 percent of all spa memberships, and 48 percent of all luxury cars. Moreover, this population eats in restaurants an average of three times per week, purchases 25 percent of all alcoholic beverages, and gambles more than any other age group.

The significance of this information to the leisure profession is profound. As the number of financially-secure older adults continues to rise throughout the next 5 0 years, the demand for recreational services and equipment is sure to grow. In light of the current recreational habits of today's middle-aged Americans, it is predictable that the demand for services which are consistent with an active, recreation-oriented life-style, will increase. The popularity of retirement communities which cater to individuals seeking activities and social interaction in a safe, controlled environment, will continue to grow. The leisure travel industry, already experiencing unprecedented growth, will almost certainly enjoy a boom in eager consumers.

Another sector of leisure services which should increase in popularity are recreational programs oriented toward providing educational experiences to older adults. The proportion of older students enrolled in colleges has grown steadily during the past two decades and available evidence strongly suggests that this trend will continue. Merging learning and travel in the form of adventure vacations would seem to hold promising opportunities for both public and private leisure providers.

One final segment of the older population with whom the leisure service profession must be concerned are the individuals who are physically impaired and/or developmentally disabled.

Future generations of older adults will be considerably different than the seniors of today. These differences will require professionals to re-examine many of the ideas which form the basis for leisure programs for this population at present. Our profession must now begin to plan for the aging revolution.

About the Author
Richard D. MacNeil, Ph.D. is an Associate Professor in the Department of Leisure Studies at the University of Iowa.

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