The Pulse                                                                

Survey shows Braun supporters from all segments of electorate By ELLEN M. DRAN

Nearly all segments of the Illinois electorate backed Democrat Carol Moseley Braun over Republican Rich Williamson for U.S. senator in November, the 1992 Illinois Policy Survey has concluded. The survey was taken during the last few weeks of the campaign, with a followup immediately after the election.

It provides one last opportunity to review the 1992 election and what led voters to make their choice. The Braun-Williamson race was never tight, but it was always interesting.

Braun's strong showing — she ended up with 55 percent of the statewide vote — indicated that the country's first black female senator drew support from all segments of the electorate. In fact, the poll shows that most demographic groups (gender, age, religion, region of the state, political affiliations, education and income) gave her 50 percent or more of their vote except those with household incomes over $49,000, self-identified conservatives and Republicans, and residents of the collar counties.

In addition, Braun did not suffer from the phenomenon often observed in black-white races when undecided voters opt in the end for the white candidate and some of the black candidate's purported white support evaporates. The post-election poll shows that voters who were undecided in October split 56 percent for Braun and 44 percent for Williamson on election day.

In more general terms, this campaign offered a number of interesting twists. It made Braun an instant celebrity after her unexpected defeat of popular incumbent Alan J. Dixon in the March primary. Williamson, a bland political unknown, became a candidate in whom the Republican party, at least for a while, saw the possibility of an upset. Accusations of negative and even racist political advertisements surfaced, and the revelation of questionable financial dealings by Braun in the handling of an inheritance by her Medicaid-funded mother threatened to destroy her dramatic lead in the polls.

Although Williamson's early problem of low name recognition finally improved in the last month of the campaign, he never approached the familiarity or appeal of Braun. The survey shows that before the election, 56 percent of the likely voters felt they knew enough about Braun to mention something they liked and/or disliked about her, but only 33 percent had a like or dislike for Williamson. A starker contrast is that 40 percent could name something positive about Braun, compared to only 14 percent for Williamson. Even with all the attention given to Braun's financial situation just before the survey was taken, almost as many

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mentioned a dislike for Williamson (24 percent) as for Braun (29 percent). The content of the positives and negatives for the two candidates was also quite different. Of the individuals who could name something they liked about Braun, 49 percent mentioned a personal characteristic such as intelligence, being straightforward, sincere, compassionate or tenacious (see table). The second largest category of remarks (22 percent) made reference to her candidacy as a woman. Another fifth of the likely voters talked in general about things she had done, either specifically ("Good track record on support of the poor") or in general ("Has done a good job") or about an issue, especially education.

The positive impressions of Williamson were more diverse, with 22 percent saying they liked him because he is a Republican and 6 percent because he is conservative. Interestingly, despite Williamson's lower visibility, the most frequently mentioned positive about him (26 percent) was a reference to specific issues such as taxes, crime or abortion. Another 19 percent referred more generally to issues and 20 percent mentioned something about his personality or character: "Steady, calculating" or "He seems honest."

The most frequently mentioned negative on Braun were references to the questionable handling of her mother's finances. Of those who had a negative, 68 percent mentioned this issue or made some other general reference to ethics or honesty.

For Williamson, the most common negatives were references to personal characteristics (40 percent) and secondly to his campaign style (33 percent). The post-election poll also shows that voters in Illinois perceived Williamson's political advertisements as negative and that they reacted strongly to them. Fully 76 percent of the post-election sample saw his ads on TV or heard them on the radio; 82 percent said the same for Braun's commercials. When asked how truthful they were, 40 percent said Braun's ads were mostly truthful, but only 16 percent said the same for Williamson's (see figure).

Williamson's commercials were three times as likely as Braun's to be perceived as mudslinging. A dramatic 74 percent said they were more mudslinging than issue-oriented, compared to 26 percent who said the same for Braun's ads. Finally, Williamson's commercials were more of a factor in convincing people to vote for Braun. Contrary to accusations in the media made against Williamson's advertising, however, most voters did not see it as racist — 22 percent were of that opinion, but 68 percent disagreed with the racism charge. *

Ellen M. Dran is a research associate in the Center for Governmental Studies at Northern Illinois University, which has conducted the Illinois Policy Survey since 1984. The 1992 poll sampled 801 Illinois adults of which 635 were identified as likely voters. Followup interviews of 300 likely voters were conducted immediately after the election.

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