Chicago                                                           

Illinois is not a politically competitive state Battlegrounds few and far apart in legislative and congressional districts By PAUL M. GREEN

It's time to kill a myth. Illinois is not a politically competitive state. Only a few areas of Illinois are political battlegrounds where either side has a possibility of winning a legislative or congressional election.

The fact that the results in statewide elections are often close reflects the political circumstances that each party's regional landslide areas often balance each other off in statewide total votes.

Let's look at the record, first for the General Assembly.

Using a generous winning percentage of under 60 percent to define a competitive legislative contest, the following is a breakdown of the 1992 legislative races:

• In only 14 of 59 Senate races (24 percent of them) did the winning candidate receive less than 60 percent of the vote. These "limited" competitive races were centered mainly in the suburban/collar county areas southwest of Chicago and in the western and northwestern parts of downstate.

• In the House only 39 of 118 winners (that's 33 percent) received less than 60 percent of the vote. The competitive House races took place in the same geographical territory as those for the Senate. However, the policy implications of two-thirds of the House contests' being noncompetitive is striking, given the abolishment in 1980 of Illinois' unique system of cumulative voting for House members. That system used to guarantee a minority party representative in every House district.

Back under cumulative voting, both parties had representatives elected in each other's strongholds. That result forced legislative leaders to concern themselves with issues and problems facing voters who were mainly against their party's policy positions. The Democratic leaders, for example, needed caucus support from the independent-minded Democratic legislators elected, say, from a Republican-dominated DuPage County district. The demand to compromise and negotiate in order to pull together the entire party caucus forced an often unwilling leadership to deal. Now, Republicans in Springfield can walk away from Chicago's needs without much worry of political repercussions while Democrats can do the same with issues facing most of the collar counties. There is no internal political party pressure on the leadership to protect individual legislators in the noncompetitive districts. Nor will we ever likely again see the Illinois House have as its speaker a DuPage County Democrat like Bill Redmond.

But its political parts that make up the political sum are mainly one-party areas that produce landslide or uncontested victories for one party or the other

Among Illinois' congressional districts, down to 20 from 22 after the 1990 reapportionment, seven appear competitive. Again using winning margins below 60 percent to define competitive districts, seven of the incumbents failed to get that margin. Of the incumbents in the "competitive congressional seven," two have announced they will not seek reelection: George Sangmeister (D-11, Chicago) and Minority Leader Robert Michel (R-18, Peoria). Two others, Dan Rostenkowski (D-5, Chicago) and Philip Crane (R-8, Mount Prospect), will face strong primary competition, but if they are renominated, they — or for that matter whoever

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might beat them in the party primaries — should have little trouble holding the seat for their party in November.

The promise of the only guaranteed competitive crapshoot for 1994 is developing in the 11th Congressional District, mainly because Sangmeister, its popular incumbent, is retiring. The 11th is the unique congressional district in Illinois. It stretches from Chicago's southeast side, through highly competitive south suburban Cook and Will counties and ends up in Central Illinois, including parts of Kankakee, Grundy and LaSalle counties. In the 1992 congressional contest, the total vote split like this in the district: Chicago, 6 percent; suburban Cook, 23 percent; Will, 37 percent; Kankakee, 11 percent; Grundy, 6 percent; and LaSalle, 17 percent. Though listed as a Republican-leaning district, the 11th's socioeconomic and geopolitical characteristics guarantee that both political parties will have highly competitive primary battles in March, followed by a very competitive general election in November.

While the campaign in the 11th Congressional District may even gain national attention, the fact is Illinois' 1994 elections for both the state lawmakers and its representatives to Congress aren't likely to affect either major party's strengths. Unless outside national issues create a massive political movement to either the Democratic or Republican side, there should be only scant changes in party composition of Illinois' General Assembly and its delegation to Congress.

As in 1992, a few General Assembly races — labeled targets by the insiders — will receive a disproportionate amount of attention and funds from party and legislative leaders. If any upsets do occur come November, they will likely happen in the few districts that lie in the competitive territory in Chicagoland's southwest suburban and collar county area or in western and northwestern Illinois.

As a whole, Illinois may appear to be a toss-up as a competitive state that elects Republican governors at the same time it elects Democratic U.S. senators. But its political parts that make up the political sum are mainly one-party areas that produce landslide or uncontested victories for one party or the other. *

Paul M. Green is director of the Institute for Public Policy and Administration, Governors State University, University Park.

December 1993/Illinois Issues/35