Economic Activity in Illinois by Metropolitan Area: 1992 Qrt. 2 - 1993 Qrt. 2

Metropolitan area	Total Retail Spending		Percentage Change in Total Spending	Local Sales Tax Receipts
	1992 Qrt. 2	1993 Qrt. 2
Illinois	21,014,902,060	21,684,759,279	3.2	216,847,593
Aurora-Elgin PMSA	536,944,764	574,420,318	7.0	5,744,203
Bloomington-Normal MSA	300,465,704	306,747,785	2.1	3,067,478
Champaign-Urbana-Rantoul MSA	291,615,481	313,692,291	7.6	3,136,923
Chicago PMSA	12,191,431,808	12,396,273,415	1.7	123,962,734
Davenport-Rock Island-Moline MSA	359,607,525	368,393,552	2.4	3,683,936
Decatur MSA	277,423,115	296,824,758	7.0	2,968,248
Joliet PMSA	575,740,671	633,642,485	10.1	6,336,425
Kankakee MSA	169,807,889	177,881,802	4.8	1,778,818
Lake County PMSA	1,207,618,916	1,284,595,624	6.4	12,845,956
Peoria MSA	703,673,358	697,173,985	-0.9	6,971,740
Rockford MSA	573,682,672	590,189,385	2.9	5,901,894
Rural Counties	2,560,069,088	2,711,728,299	5.9	27,117,283
Springfield MSA	395,137,151	413,525,583	4.7	4,135,256
St. Louis MSA	871,683,917	919,669,998	5.5	9,196,700
Notes: Dollar values are for the second quarter (April, May, and June) and are in June 1993 dollars. Data are from the Illinois Department of Revenue. Analysis is by the Institute of Government and Public Affairs, University of Illinois.

The Illinois economy moved ahead at a moderate pace during the first half of 1993. Inflation-adjusted retail spending grew at an annual rate of 2.6 percent during the first quarter and 3.2 percent during the second quarter. Although lower than growth at the end of last year (10.2 percent), current growth is higher than at any other time since 1988.

Our findings belie the common view that the state's economy is stagnating. Indeed, employment levels and unemployment rates in Illinois have changed little in two years. However, in a recovery, improvements in the labor market typically lag consumer spending, as is happening now in Illinois. Our analysis is based on detailed sales tax receipts from the Illinois Department of Revenue, representing all reporting establishments in Illinois. These data provide the most current and comprehensive picture available of economic activity in Illinois.

As has been the case since early 1991, the collar counties around Chicago continue to lead the recovery in Illinois with second-quarter growth of 6.4 percent. However, the pace in Cook County was an anemic 0.6 percent. Growth in rural counties exceeded growth in urban counties by 5.9 percent to 2.8 percent. It must be remembered that retail spending in the 76 rural Illinois counties (out of a total of 102) represents only about 13 percent of total spending in Illinois. The Joliet PMSA was the state's hottest metropolitan area, with growth of 10.1 percent. Slowest growth occurred in the Peoria MSA, where spending declined at an annual rate of 0.9 percent.

Metropolitan areas trailing Joliet during the second quarter were as follows: Champaign-Urbana (7.6%), Aurora-Elgin and Decatur (7.0%), Lake County (6.4%), the Illinois counties surrounding St. Louis (5.5%), Kankakee (4.8%), Springfield (4.7%), Rockford (2.9%), Rock Island (2.4%), Bloomington-Normal (2.1%), the Chicago PMSA (1.7%), and Peoria (-0.9%). Figures for total spending and local sales tax receipts (metropolitan and county receipts) for all Illinois metropolitan areas are shown in the table.

Our data cannot predict with any certainty, of course, how well regions of the state will perform during the second half of 1993 and during 1994. However, given the moderate rates of spending growth during the first and second quarters of 1993, the recovery seems to be sustainable. •

*John B. Crihfield is an economist at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Thanks to Helena Qifen He and Hick Hirschi for research assistance.

October 1993 / Illinois Municipal Review / Page 17