A VIEW FROM THE SUBURBS

The road to the White House:

Who is building a better bridge?

by Madeleine Doubek

Bob Dole wants to build a bridge to the past, but time may be passing him by. At 73, the man from Russell, Kan., surely is making his last attempt at the presidency. The Republican only has a few weeks left in the construction season, but his design for paving a bridge to the White House is flawed.

While many voters are anxious about their futures, they are satisfied with their lives and the nation's slow- growth economy. Those are the findings of Republican pollster Vincent Breglio of Research/Strategy/Management Inc. and Democrat pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research.

Breglio was pollster to both Reagan and Bush from 1980 through 1988, while Lake currently advises national party committees and conducted focus group research for Democratic President Bill Clinton four years ago.

Both, who spoke recently to reporters at a seminar in Lake Bluff, say voters believe we are recovering from the recession that paved the way to the White House for Democrat Clinton. People toss out presidential incumbents when they're angry about their bottom line. Not that many people are that angry anymore, they say.

Dole argues the economy is stagnant, that it isn't expanding as fast as it once did. Economists say he's right;

but that argument isn't compelling for most voters. They aren't heading toward Dole's construction site.

Voters aren't heading to Bob Dole's construction site. Bill Clinton's bridge leads to where many voters live.

Despite the focus on a Reaganesque supply-side tax cut, most Republican- minded voters actually have looked more favorably toward cutting spending than taxes, Breglio noted. They are not enthusiastic supporters of economic expansion because they don't need growth as much as others. "That ain't where most of our folks are at, frankly," he said.

Republican men are least likely to say they are working harder and taking home less. People who earn $100, 000 or more annually tend to be Republican, but they are satisfied with the status quo. Therefore, they favor Clinton when asked who will best lead the economy into the 21st century.

Dole did not improve his standing as an economic manager with his selection of supply-sider Jack Kemp as a running mate. His pitch for cutting taxes 15 percent to spur economic growth should help him build a bridge beyond his party base. But the public's mistrust of government is so high they don't believe either candidate will give them tax relief.

So Dole laid his foundation with a grand tax-cut plan at a time when voters clearly are saying those economic plans no longer are their top concern.

Voters still are worried about their futures and the futures of their children. They worry the economy could get worse and they may lose their jobs. They worry they don't have enough time for their children. They worry the road they're on may have potholes — that their retirement, health and other benefits won't be good enough to keep them moving forward.

And so candidates from the White House to the Statehouse who find ideas that would help people better manage their time and regain a sense of control are the ones who will win, Lake and Breglio say.

Clinton has been doing the better job of that so far, the pollsters say. He has mastered use of the bully pulpit. He's become "a man of a thousand proposals," Lake says. From talk of a national curfew for teens, to expansion of family leave, to the call for all Americans to have at least a community-college-level education, to v-chips for television, Clinton's ideas are about helping people manage their time. His bridge leads right to where many Americans live and breathe. Voters may not approve of Clinton personally, but he's talking about theirworries in ways they understand.

So, if Dole is to patch up the gaps, his only chance in the remaining weeks may be an all-out attempt to demolish Clinton's bridge, Breglio believes. Dole must go negative and hope to suppress turnout. He must connect worries people have about Clinton's character to his future conduct in office. He must question Clinton's drug policy proposal in light of his past admission of marijuana experimentation. He must question the practices of people working in the White House. He must talk about Whitewater and Filegate.

That plan may very well explode, but without it Dole's bridge looks now like it leads directly to his retirement.

Madeleine Doubek is political editor for the Daily Herald, a suburban metro newspaper. She has covered politics since 1988.

Illinois Issues October 1996 ¦ 41