American Demographics' Trend Cop Sets the Record Straight
by Cheryl Russell

1. IS IT TRUE?
When you hear about a trend, first ask: "Is it true?" If it isn't, then you can—and should—ignore it. Since many so-called trends are fabrications rather than facts, following this rule will help you cut through the clutter in your in-box.

By asking "Is it true?" you are determining whether the evidence for a trend is based on the actions of a representative sample of Americans as measured through some sort of valid survey device. If it is, then the trend story passes the first test. If the evidence is based solely on anecdotes, focus groups, or on statistically shaky research, it probably isn't a true trend.

Anecdotal evidence makes a strong impression on both reporters and the public, and appropriate anecdotes can add life to factual trend stories. But not all anecdotes are supported by societal-level trends. If all your friends are quitting their white-collar jobs to become lumberjacks, for example, they may be evidence of a trend—or you may have odd friends.

When a national news magazine recently published a cover story on what it called the "overclass," it failed the "true" test. The article was nothing but a collection of anecdotes about problems faced by the current crop of social elites. Nevertheless, the public responded with howls of outrage. "Our best and brightest, it appears, are nothing more than a pack of snooty, overindulged, self-absorbed, grown-up children," complained a reader.

Shoddy research or misinterpretation of valid data can also steer trendspotters astray. Take the story that graced a cover of another national weekly magazine in 1994. "Reversing a decades-long trend, young women are opting out of the job market and staying home, with major implications for the economy," the story reported. Its conclusion was based on government statistics showing a one-year drop in the share of very young women in the paid labor force. But the story lacked any convincing factual information to back up the claim that women were leaving paid jobs to become housewives. It neglected other possible explanations for the decline, such as increased rates of college attendance. It also failed to mention similar declines in the labor force participation rates of young men.

If all your friends are quitting their white-collar jobs to become lumberjacks, for example, they may be evidence of a trend or you may have odd friends.

The story was rife with anecdotes, however. And because it struck a chord with a certain element of the population who long for the "good old days," the nontrend gained credence. A few months later, a group of magazine editors commented in

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an interview with Sara Lee's CEO John Bryan: "You sound too upbeat for someone whose critical trend—women in the work force—has reversed recently." Business people who lap up anecdotal evidence with such childlike naivete will find themselves punished by their competitors.

2. IS IT NEW?
Even when trends are true, they may not be news. Media often report well-established and long-term trends as if they have suddenly erupted on the scene. This sometimes happens because reporters lack historical perspective. It also happens because competition encourages reporters to over-hype their stories.

If today's trend turns out to be yesterday's, you may want to file the information for background or reference purposes. You won't necessarily need to refocus your marketing efforts. But if an old trend is news to you and relevant to your business, you may need to do some retrofitting to catch up with reality.

Stories that fail the "new" test abound. Last summer, for example, the media reported on a retirement study by the RAND Corporation, using attention-grabbing headlines such as; "The disparity in wealth among Americans sets alarm bells ringing;" "America isn't saving for retirement;" and "Half of households are fixing to retire with less than $100,000." the RAND study had found that the richest Americans, in their 50s, have far more assets on which to live in retirement than the poorest Americans. So what else is new? This disparity has existed since retirement became a lifestage for middle-class Americans earlier this century. Trend stories that don't pass the new test are often no more than a media ploy to get attention, gain market share, and sell advertising.

3. IS IT WHO?
Even trends that are true and new may be irrelevant if you don't understanding who is affected by them. It's important to ask whether a trend is emerging because the attitudes or behavior of individual Americans are changing, or because it is simply a consequence of the changing demographic composition of the population.

Trends in SAT scores are a good example. When the national average verbal SAT test score fell eight points between 1975-76 and 1993-94, the media sounded the alarm. The academic proficiency of American high school students was declining, they said. But a look at the "who" behind SAT scores reveals a different story. Verbal SAT scores were up for every group except non-Hispanic whites. Because minorities remain a small share of the total test-taking population, the decline that occurred among whites overshadowed minority progress.

Furthermore, the declining score for white students is better explained by who takes the test than by any dumbing down of high school students. The share of high school students who go to college has been rising for at least two decades, which means that many lower-performing teens are taking the test, resulting in a predictable drop in average scores. It is the changing nature of the pool of people taking the test that has changed, not the abilities of those who take it.

Declining SAT scores may be a reality. But by asking "who," you can distinguish the real, underlying trends from the apparent trends that often mask them. And in the best tradition of journalism, this understanding could provide clues to the most important question of all— "why." If you understand why trends occur, you'll always have an edge on the competition.

Cheryl Russell is author of The Official Guide to the American Marketplace (New Strategist, 1995) and editor-in-chief of New Strategist Publications in Ithaca, New York. Reprinted with permission by American Demographics. 

50 * Illinois Parks & Recreation * May/June 1996