SPECIAL FOCUS

What's Hot What's Not

In-line skating is the hottest growth sport in town...and the United States. Its even edging out baseball as the apple pie sport for America's youth.

BY THOMAS B. DOYLE

Youth baseball has shown no growth since 1990. Some blame this on labor difficulties in Major League Baseball. A more likely explanation is the growing popularity of roller hockey.

Since 1985, the National Sporting Goods Association (NSGA) has annually surveyed 35,000 Americans to project participation in more than 50 sports and recreation activities (see Chart 2 on page 22). Core sports are tracked every year. Activities of less importance to the NSGA membership, such as miniature golf and horseback riding, are tracked on a two or three-year cycle. This information allows NSGA to look at long-term trends as well as short-term fads. For park and recreation districts, responding to long term trends and ignoring fads is the key to intelligent long-term planning.

This article presents a series of observations on the data that accompanies it. In addition to some observations on overall trends in sports participation, the article looks at two specific groups in the U.S. population: 7- to 17-year-olds and baby boomers.

In-line is hot. So what else is new?

In-line skating—which has grown from 3.6 million participants in 1990 to 23.9 million participants in 1995—is hot.

Between 1990 and 1991 it grew more than 100%; in 1995, its growth rate was 23%. Although its growth rate is declining, in-line skating is by far the fastest growing of the major sports and recreation activities.

For 1996, we are likely to see a growth rate of approximately 10%. Looking ahead, in-line skating has the potential of attracting perhaps 30 to 32 million participants. From a long-range planning point of view, the more important question is: Does in-line skating have "staying power?"

It is likely that in-line skating will be with us a long time and will move fairly quickly into one of the top ten participant activities in the United States (see Chart 1 on page 22). Aside from being an activity that is both fun and provides many fitness benefits, in-line skating is a "social" activity, referring to its demographics. In-line skaters are almost equally male and female. The more even the balance between male and female in a sport, the more likely participation in it will continue into adult life.

For example, baseball is male-dominated (77% versus 23%). Softball has a more balanced gender distribution, 57% male to 43% female. Only 27% of adults 25 years of age or older play baseball; 50% play softball.

In-line skating is also "social" in the broad age spectrum it attracts. There are more than four million inline skaters who are 25 years of age and older—old

January/February 1997 /21

SPORT	1995	1994	1993	1992	1991	1990	1989	1988	1987	1986	1985
1. EXERCISE WALKING	70.3	708	644	67.8	696	71.4	666	623	58.1	535	415
2. SWIMMING	61.5	60,3	614	631	662	67.5	705	71 1	661	726	73.3
3 BICYCLE RIDING	563	496	47.9	54.6	54.0	55.3	569	538	53.2	49.7	50.7
4. EXERCISING wl EQUIPMENT	44.3	43.8	34.9	394	392	35.3	31.5	289	34.8	320	321
5. FISHING	44.2	457	512	476	47.0	46.9	465	457	458	475	na
6. CAMPING	428	42.9	42.7	47.3	47.1	462	46.5	423	44.2	41.2	464
7. BOWLING	41.9	374	41 3	425	404	40.1	408	37.9	40.1	34.2	357
8. BILLIARDS/POOL	31.1	34.0	294	293	29.6	28.1	296	324	29.3	na	23,0
9. BASKETBALL	301	282	29.6	282	26.2	263	262	231	25.1	21.2	195
10. HIKING	250	25.3	19.5	21.6	227	220	23,5	19.9	17.4	170	21 1
11. BOATING - MOTOR/POWER	250	264	20.7	22.3	22.4	28.6	290	325	309	25.5	266
12. GOLF	240	246	22.6	240	24.7	230	232	227	203	200	185
13. ROLLER SKATING - IN-LINE	23.9	195	124	97	73	36	na	na	na	na	na
14 AEROBIC EXERCISING	231	232	24.9	27.8	259	233	25.1	24.2	23.1	21.9	239
15. RUNNING/JOGGING	20.6	20.6	203	219	225	23.8	248	229	248	231	26.3
16. DART THROWING	19.4	21.2	19.2	188	17.0	164	17.4	17.8	13.1	9.0	9.4
17. VOLLEYBALL	18.0	17.4	20.5	22.1	22.6	232	251	22.0	236	20,7	201
18. SOFTBALL	176	18.1	7.9	192	19.6	20.1	221	206	216	20.9	216
19. HUNTING w/ FIREARMS	163	164	8.5	17.8	17.1	18.5	17.7	na	na	na	na
20. BASEBALL	15.7	15.1	6.7	15.1	16.5	15.6	154	13.4	15.2	13.9	128
21. ROLLER SKATING - 2x2	13.6	14.0	5.3	16.8	18.6	18.0	21.5	205	19.8	na	18.1
22. TENNIS	12.6	11fi	4.2	17.3	16.7	18.4	1S8	17.3	16.9	180	19.0
23. FOOTBALL (Touch)	12.1	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
24 SOCCER	12.0	12.5	10.3	10.6	10.0	10.9	11.2	8.7	9.8	82	8.6
25. STEP AEROBICS	114	115	10.6	9.2	6.8	na	na	na	na	na	na
26. TARGET SHOOTING	112	12.2	12.8	123	11.5	12.8	na	na	na	na	na
27. MOUNTAIN BIKING - ON ROAD	10.5	9.0	105	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
28. BACKPACKING	102	98	92	9.7	10.4	108	11.4	9.1	8.9	80	10.2
29. SKIING (Alpine)	9.3	10.6	10.5	10.8	10.4	11.4	11.0	12.4	103	9.7	9.4
30. CALISTHENICS	9.3	8.5	10.8	11.5	12.3	132	15.1	13.6	17.1	na	261
31 TABLE TENNIS	93	78	na	9.5	na	11.8	13.7	15.8	14.1	8.5	na
32. FOOTBALL (Tackle)	8.3	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
33. CANOEING	7.2	8.5	6.5	7.2	8.7	8.9	9.4	9.7	8.5	7.6	79
34. ICE/FIGURE SKATING	7.1	7.8	6.9	6.7	7.9	6.5	7.0	7.0	6.4	44	na
35. WATER SKIING	69	7.4	8.1	7.9	9.0	105	10.8	128	10.8	11.9	12.9
36. BADMINTON	5.8	5.4	na	7.0	na	9.3	na	124	na	na	11.4
37. MOUNTAIN BIKING - OFF ROAD	5.7	5.7	4.6	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
38. SNORKELING	5.7	5.9	4.9	4.8	5.4	na	na	na	na	na	na
39. ARCHERY (Target)	4.8	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
40. RACQUETBALL	4.7	5.3	5.4	6.6	6.3	8.1	82	93	7.9	78	79
41. MARTIALSARTS	4.5	na	3.6	na	3.2	na	na	2.7	na	na	21
42. SKATE BOARDING	43	49	5.6	5.5	8.0	7.5	na	7.4	70	na	na
43 CLIMBING. Mountain/Rock	40	34	na	4.3	na	4.7	na	57	na	na	na
44. SAILING	3.7	4.1	3.8	3.5	4.1	4.9	4.7	6.7	53	5.1	47
45. SKIING (Cross Country)	3.4	3.6	3.7	3.5	4.4	5.1	4.9	5.8	5.0	4.7	5.5
46. HOCKEY (Roller)	3.2	22	1.5	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
47 CHEERLEADING	2.9	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
48. HOCKEY (Ice)	2.5	1.9	1.7	1.6	1.8	1.9	1.5	1.8	1.2	1.1	1.0
49. KAYAKING/RAFTING	2.5	na	2.1	na	2.0	na	na	na	na	na	na
50. SCUBA (OPEN WATER)	2.4	2.2	2.4	2.2	2.0	2.6	2.0	2.7	23	1.6	na
51. SNOWBOARDING	2.3	2.1	1.8	1.2	1.6	1.5	1.6	1.3	na	na	na
52. BOXING	1.4	na	na	0.7	na	na	na	na	na	0.5	na
53. SNOWSHOEING	0.6	na	na	04	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
54. WINDSURFING	0.5	0.7	06	08	0.8	0.9	na	na	0.8	1.3	12

Sport	Total	Percent Change		Sport	Total	Percent Change
1 Hockey (Roller)	3.2	43.0%	23	Aerotxc Exercising	23.1	-06%
2 Hockey (Ice)	2.5	29.2%	24	Exercise Walking	70.3	-0.7%
3 Roger Skating (In-tine)	23.9	22.6%	25	Hunting with Firearms	16.3	-0.7%
4 Climbing, Mountain/Rock	4	18.8%	26	Hiking	25	-1.0%
5 Mountain Biking (on road)	10.5	18.5%	27	Roller Skating (2x2)	13.6	-2.4%
6 Bicyde Riding	56.3	13.0%	28	Golf	24	-2.4%
7 Bowling	41.8	12.2%	29	Softball	17.6	-2.9%
8 Snowboarding	2.3	9.6%	30	Snorkeling	5.7	-3.2%
9 Calisthenics	9.3	9.4%	31	Fishing	44.2	-3.3%
10 Tennis	12.6	8.5%	32	Soccer	12	-4.3%
11 Basketball	30.1	6.8%	33	Boating. Motor/Power	25	-5.4%
12 Scuba Diving (Open Water)	2.4	6.3%	34	Skiing (Cross Country)	3.4	-5.5%
13 Badminton	5.8	6.2%	35	Water Siding	6.9	-6.1%
14 Backpack/Wilderness Camp	10.2	4.4%	36	Billiards/Pod	31.1	-8.4%
15 Baseball	15.7	4.2%	37	Target Shooting	11.2	-8.5%
16 Volleyball	18	3.3%	38	Dart Throwing	19.4	-8.5%
17 Swimming	61.5	2.1%	39	Ice/Figure Skating	7.1	-10.0%
18 Exercising with Equipment	44.3	1.2%	40	Sailing	3.7	-10-4%
19 Mountain Biking (off road)	5.7	0.9%	41	Skateboarding	4.3	-11.9%
20 Running/Jogging	20.6	0.0%	42	Racquetball	4.7	-12.0%
21 Camping (Vacation/Ovemite)	42.8	-0.3%	43	Skiing (Alpine)	9.3	-12.8%
22 Step Aerobics	11.4	-0.6%	44	Canoeing	7.2	-15.3%
			45	Wind Surfing	0.5	-21.3%

enough to be parents of the five million 7-11 year olds who in-line skate and with whom they will likely skate. Since the NSGA Sports Participation study only surveys those 7 years of age or older, we do not report on those ages 3-6, whom many of us see with their parents.

What's really new is roller hockey

Roller hockey is likely to become a major organized sport for the youth population. From a facility point of view, it has "needs" similar to basketball. Outdoors, parking lots substitute for driveways. For indoor use, concrete floors substitute for basketballs hardwood floors. Warehouse-type facilities are being converted to roller hockey use on the West Coast.

The participation rate for roller hockey showed the greatest growth for all sports surveyed in 1995 and is likely to remain at the top of the list in 1996. The sport has the potential of attracting about the same number of participants as baseball (15 million). Why? Because the demographics for the two groups are almost identical. Both are male-dominated (baseball, 77%; roller hockey, 79%) and youth-oriented (ages 7-17: baseball, 64%; roller hockey, 73%).

Youth baseball has shown no growth since 1990. Some blame this on labor difficulties in Major League Baseball. A more likely explanation is the growing popularity of roller hockey.

Because the cost of facilities (compared to ice hockey) and the cost of equipment is relatively low, there are fewer barriers to growth than with many other sports. The cost of a good baseball or softball bat is in the same price range as a pair of decent in-line skates.

Ignore short term changes

Chart 2 shows that most of the major changes, both in terms of participation increases and decreases, occur in sports with low participation rates. Roller and ice hockey show the highest growth rates in 1995. However, they had only 1/10 the participants of in-line skating and 1/20 participants of bicycle riding.

Bicycle riding showed a healthy 13% increase in 1995. However, its current level is still below its peak year of participation (1989). A one-year change does not make a long-term trend.

Tennis offers another example. Participation grew about 9% in 1995, a good short-term increase. However, the sport showed no growth between 1985 and 1990. From 1990 through 1994, tennis participation declined dramatically. One would be well advised to take a "wait and see" attitude on building new tennis courts.

Look at the big numbers

Parks and recreation districts serve the entire community. Too often the voices that shape decisions are

enough to be parents of the five million 7-11 year olds who in-line skate and with whom they will likely skate. Since the NSGA Sports Participation study only surveys those 7 years of age or older, we do not report on those ages 3-6, whom many of us see with their parents.

What's really new is roller hockey

Roller hockey is likely to become a major organized sport for the youth population. From a facility point of view, it has "needs" similar to basketball. Outdoors, parking lots substitute for driveways. For indoor use, concrete floors substitute for basketballs hardwood floors. Warehouse-type facilities are being converted to roller hockey use on the West Coast.

The participation rate for roller hockey showed the greatest growth for all sports surveyed in 1995 and is likely to remain at the top of the list in 1996. The sport has the potential of attracting about the same number of participants as baseball (15 million). Why? Because the demographics for the two groups are almost identical. Both are male-dominated (baseball, 77%; roller hockey, 79%) and youth-oriented (ages 7-17: baseball, 64%; roller hockey, 73%).

Youth baseball has shown no growth since 1990. Some blame this on labor difficulties in Major League Baseball. A more likely explanation is the growing popularity of roller hockey.

Because the cost of facilities (compared to ice hockey) and the cost of equipment is relatively low, there are fewer barriers to growth than with many other sports. The cost of a good baseball or softball bat is in the same price range as a pair of decent in-line skates.

Ignore short term changes

Chart 2 shows that most of the major changes, both in terms of participation increases and decreases, occur in sports with low participation rates. Roller and ice hockey show the highest growth rates in 1995. However, they had only 1/10 the participants of in-line skating and 1/20 participants of bicycle riding.

Bicycle riding showed a healthy 13% increase in 1995. However, its current level is still below its peak year of participation (1989). A one-year change does not make a long-term trend.

Tennis offers another example. Participation grew about 9% in 1995, a good short-term increase. However, the sport showed no growth between 1985 and 1990. From 1990 through 1994, tennis participation declined dramatically. One would be well advised to take a "wait and see" attitude on building new tennis courts.

Look at the big numbers

Parks and recreation districts serve the entire community. Too often the voices that shape decisions are

22/ Illinois Parks and Recreation

those of advocacy groups—those passionate about their particular interests. The broader community fails to speak out. The "big numbers" can speak for the entire community.

One can program to sports and activities in the top 10 (or top 15). One can look at the sports moving in (or out) of this group for opportunities to add or subtract resources.

Looking at Chart 2, one observes that most of the sports with a population base of ten million or more participants had ten million or more participants ten years ago. The major exceptions are in-line skating, soccer and dart throwing.

On the negative side, only three activities that had more than ten million population participation ten years ago have less than ten million today. They are calisthenics, water skiing and badminton.

It is noteworthy that many of the sports and activities with the largest participation bases are unorganized activities. Activities, such as exercise walking, bicycle riding and hiking, require only trails and paths to support them. They also are time-discretionary; they can be engaged in at times available to the participant. In terms of resources (both financial and human), unorganized activities seem to have received less attention than organized activities.

Look at historical trends

Looking at the same chart, one observes very strong growth in many recreation activities between 1985 and 1990. Between 1990 and 1995, growth flattens and in many cases declines rather dramatically (see Chart 1). Exercise walking grew from 41.5 million participants in 1985 to 71.4 million in 1990. It has remained flat since, with 70.3 million participants in 1995.

Golf grew from 18 million participants in 1985 to 23 million in 1990. Since then, golf has struggled to reach 24 million participants in 1995. Tennis, mentioned earlier, has shown a dramatic decline in participation since 1990.

It is entirely possible that the recession of the early 1990s caused Americans to refocus their use of time. The business of life became more serious. Less time was devoted to "recreation" activities. It is no longer a "given" that citizens will use facilities simply because we provide them.

Looking at demographics is as important as looking at activities

Between 1990 and 1995, the U.S. population grew approximately 5%. If a sports or recreation activity did not grow at least at that rate over the same five- year period, it lost "market share." One can also look at specific age segments to see whether a sport gained or lost "market share" with that segment.

Parks and recreation districts are typically programed to young people. Over the past five years, the youth population 7-11 years of age grew at a 3.6% rate. The population ages 12-17 grew at a 10.5% rate, double the national rate. A 5% growth in sports participation for ages 7-11 over that five-year period was a net gain; 5% growth in sports participation for ages 12-17 was a net loss.

For example, although the number of 12-17 year olds playing basketball grew 5.3% between 1990 and 1995, while the number of youth in this age group grew 10.5 percent (see Chart 3 on page 24). With this age group, basketball lost "market share." Or, in 1990, 41.4% of all 12-17 year olds played basketball; in 1995, only 39.4% played.

The fastest growing segment of the U.S. population is the baby boomers

Baby boomers, the generation born immediately following World War II, crossed into the 45 years of age and older group five years ago. As baby boomers continue to age, they will add 20 million people to the 45-plus population in the next 10 years.

Baby boomers began the jogging phenomenon 25 years ago. More conscious of their own responsibility for their own well being, they continue to jog (or perhaps exercise walk) and show an interest in other fitness activities. In the group ages 45-54, one observes above average growth for fitness activities like exercising with equipment, jogging and hiking (see Chart 4 on page 24).

This interest is confirmed by other data. Since 1990, the number of Americans 45 years of age and older who work out at clubs has grown from 3.4 to 5.1 million. This 51% growth far exceeds the age group's 9% U.S. population growth. This age group is also responsible for almost half of the purchases in the $2.9 billion home fitness equipment market that NSGA documents in its annual "Sporting Goods Market" research study.

The youth sports market is two distinct markets

The reaction to team sports, which we traditionally identify as the heart of the youth market, is quite different among 7-11 year olds than among the 12-17 year olds, (the junior high and high school age group). (See chart 3.) This shift seems to take place at the beginning of junior high, when students are beginning to experience important physical and social changes, and continues through much of high school.

These teens seem to prefer more unstructured activities—whether passive (videos, computer games, etc.) or active (driveway basketball). An example of an unstructured activity that has grown among teens is billiards, with participation for 12-17 years olds growing 28% between 1990 and 1995.

A one-year change does not make a long term trend. Tennis offers an example. Participation grew about 9% in 1995, a good short-term increase. However, the sport showed no growth between 1985 and 1990. From 1990 through 1994, tennis participation declined dramatically. One would be well advised to take a "wait and see" attitude on building new tennis courts.

January/February 1997 /23

	YEAR	TOTAL	Change	7-11	Change	12-17	Change
Total U.S.	1990	224,641		18,243		20,042
Total U.S.	1995	235,460	4.8%	18,898	3.6%	22,154	10.5%
Baseball	1990	15,576		4,797		4,595
Baseball	1995	15,728	1.0%	5,442	13.4%	4,545	-1.1%
Basketball	1990	26,315		4,868		8,289
Basketball	1995	30,098	14.4%	6,321	29.8%	8,728	5.3%
Soccer	1990	10,920		4,663		3,746
Soccer	1995	11,976	9.7%	5,054	8.4%	3,485	-7.0%
Softball	1990	20,076		3,333		3,869
Softball	1995	17,611	-12.3%	2,518	-24.5%	3,874	0.1%
Volleyball	1990	23,195		1,832		5,706
Volleyball	1995	17,597	-24.1%	2,011	9.8%	4,292	-24.8%

For the traditional team sports surveyed in the NSGA Sport Participation study, 7-11 year olds increased their participation at a higher rate than their 1990 to 1995 population growth in all except softball. The 12-17 year olds failed to match their population growth in any of the five sports. Perhaps programming that allows "hanging out" (unstructured passive) to coexist with more structured activities, like three- on-three basketball, will benefit recreation programs.

Where there is action, look for reaction

Chart 5 looks at some of the sports that "surround" in-line skating. Roller hockey, which NSGA surveyed for the first time in 1993, shows some of the same type of dynamic growth that in-line skating showed between 1990 and 1995. Skateboarding, on the other hand, showed major declines in popularity as the population of in-line skating rose. Both in-line skating and skateboarding generate the same type of activity— motion on wheels. However, in-line skating offers certain levels of challenge with its array of half pipes, quarter pipes, etc. that appeal to a young, carefree audience.

Ice hockey has also shown strong growth. The National Hockey League would like to attribute the growth of roller hockey to the sport of ice hockey. I suspect the truth may be just the opposite—that the excitement that roller hockey has caused has moved participants into ice hockey.

I mentioned earlier that roller hockey and baseball appeal to the same demographics. This suggests that the popularity of in-line may very well have an impact on the number of youth playing baseball.

Without vision nothing changes

Statistics do not provide answers. They raise questions.

This article barely touches the surface of the data available in NSGA research. We could have looked at trends by gender or by intensity of participation. It is up to us who are in the "business" of sports and recreation to look at the data to help shape the vision of what a park might be. Then we try to create as much of that vision as possible.

THOMAS B. DOYLE
is vice president of Information & Research for the Notional Sporting Goods Association (NSGA).

Founded in 1929, NSGA is a trade association that assists its members (sporting goods manufacturers and retailers) through research, trade shows, educational programs and other services. NSGA created the nonprofit Sports Foundation, Inc., in 196,5 to encourage participation in sports and recreation activities by recognizing the best and most innovative programs of the nation's park and recreation deportments. The Sports Foundation, Inc., works closely with the National Recreation and Parks Association (NRPA) to honor departments that have displayed on exciting and visible commitment to their communities. Recognition for these accomplishments comes in the form of the Gold Medal and Special Recreation Awards, presented at the NRIA Annual Congress.

For more information, contact NSGA headquarters, 1699 Wall Street, Mt. Prospect. Illinois 60056, 847.439.4000 [phone], 847.439.0111 (fax).

24/ Illinois Parks and Recreation

Visionary Memorial Park

It's not fair to ask others to create a vision unless one is also willing to try.

So here I offer my vision for a park, based on data and observations from this article. Leaving aside issues of safety and liability (which are dealt with in implementing a vision), let's create "Visionary Memorial Park."

Visionary Memorial Park (VMP) is dominated by unusually wide paved pathways that provide the roadway for its many citizens who wish to use it for a variety of human transport—cycling, in-line skating, jogging, exercise walking, skateboarding and other new modes of transport the human mind may develop. Off the main pathway break smaller trails where citizens may hike and enjoy the majesty of a variety of trees and shrubs. Other trails wander through flowered areas maintained by local gardening clubs.

The land in the park has been contoured to provide interest as citizens move around it. At one point a path breaks off to a "mini-mountain" created with blocks of scone from a local quarry. Paths up the mountain provide exercise for walkers and challenges for would-be rock climbers.

The contoured land also provides the drops necessary for winter sports, like the more traditional to bogganing and the up-and-coming snowboarding. The snowboarding will not be like the Rockies, but it provides a gentle course on which children may learn.

Because Americans have always had a great love for the outdoors (observe the numbers of who camp, fish and hunt), the park provides large stocked ponds where grandparents can teach their grandchildren the skills of fishing. It also provides sires where families can gather around camp fires (or barbecue pits) to enjoy outdoor cooking.

Along our pathways are "fitness courses" where the adult population can do tight resistance training on equipment specifically designed for outdoor use.

Other sections of VMP provide places where the citizens can gather for board games—chess, checkers, dominos or whatever is popular in the community. Not far from this area is a toddler park with a variety of playground sets where children of various ages can climb, jump, run and do all the things that children love to do.

Now I didn't mention the golf course designed to accommodate winter sports like cross country skiing, ice sailing, snowshoeing and—perish the thought— snowmobiling.

Nor did I mention the stream that flows through VMP, allowing citizens to canoe, kayak and paddle boat pass the artificial beach where sun worshipers spend their time. Of course, the park has a major facility for rental of appropriate watercraft, as well as equipment like in-line skates, cross-country skis, bicycles, and more, for those who want to try new sports.

Because the community includes both citizens and businesses that work in it, corporations sponsor activities and park functions that are outside the budget of the park district.

I could go on and on, but that is my vision. Time for you to create yours.

—Thomas.B. Doyle:

25/ Illinois Parks and Recreation