TREND WATCH

Watch for Wild Cards
Like Tiger Woods

BY ELLEN O'SULLIVAN, Ph.D., CLP

Planning for trends can be tricky. You need to factor in the impact of possible "wild cards" like Tiger Woods, who
reshuffled the deck in golf circles. Read on and stay alert for upheavals in the trends landscape.

PROJECTIONS & PITFALLS

Everybody's trend watching. The demographic changes and rapid societal and economic shifts act in concert to change people's preferences, patterns, and behaviors leading organizations to seek statistics and data related to those changes.

Consider the following factors when reviewing or devising trend information.

Linear Projections... The tendency to view demographic numbers or participation levels as rates that will continue to increase or decrease in the next few years at the same rate or pace as currently noted

For Example: The number of junior golfers will continue to increase every year by 15-17%.

The "Wild Card" Impact... An entirely unanticipated event or occurrence significantly affects (either negatively or positively) the trend

For Example: Tiger Woods' burst on the pro golfing scene. While "Arnie's Army" was large, "Tiger's Troops" are young and diverse, generating new interest and attention among the young and non-golfers as well.

The Butterfly Effect... Meteorologist Edward Lorenz concluded in 1963 that small or seemingly unrelated causes could create unanticipated effects as demonstrated by his findings that the flapping of butterfly wings in Singapore could impact the hurricane season in North Carolina

For Example: The downsizing of America's work force, the cost of healthcare, the federal government's plan to raise the Social Security age are all examples offerees that initially seem unrelated to golf trends. But if the baby boomers find themselves retiring later or working part- time in their "leisure" years, such shifts could make a difference in golf participation patterns.

CHANGES IN HOW WE LIVE, WORK AND PLAY

Clubs that generate higher per member revenue experience lower attrition rates, while clubs that offer no membership discounts enjoy a slightly higher net membership growth rate —International Health, Racquet, and Sportsclub Association's 1996 Profile of Success

Approximately 86% of adults have taken a minimum of at least one weekend getaway in the last year, with preferred activities including dining out (97%), shopping (75%), outdoor recreation (72%), and sleeping late (65%) —Wiese Research for Embassy Suites

Nearly one-fourth of American households (approximately 22.4 million families) are providing informal, unpaid care for an older friend or relative. This represents a threefold increase from a decade earlier. Almost two-thirds of these care-givers are employed full or part time and families involved in such care personally spend about $2 billion per month. —AARP

The average U.S. worker gets 11.37 days per year in paid vacation, down from 12.17 days in 1987 —Primark Decision Economics

According to Futurist Magazine, a record 51.7 million children entered U.S. classrooms in the 1996-1997 school year, topping the previous record of 51.3 million children set 25 years ago at the end of the baby boom. The Department of Education indicates that this boom is only the beginning and projects increases every year over the next ten years with approximately 54.6 million children attending public and private schools by 2006.

"Secrets" to building strong home towns relate to well-being and stability, including locally owned manufacturing firms, a diverse economy, community engagement, small retail businesses, voluntary associations, and church membership —American Demographics

PRACTICE PROJECTING Pick three or four major population groups or activity areas that are important for your organization and conduct your own trend projection exercise. Be sure to include possible butterfly effects or wild card situations, and take into consideration die impact of linear projections as well.

ELLEN O'SULLIVAN, Ph.D. CIP

is the president of Leisure Lifestyle Consulting of Gloslonbury, Conn., specializing in support for the service industry in reaching and retaining customers through leisure experiences and lifestyle connections.

May /June 1997/ 53